Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
It does appear that we are debating two different things.
The thing is, the same predictor that says the Flames have a 60% chance of missing the playoffs also predicted that they had virtually zero chance of being in a playoff position at this point of the season. In this case (and some others I could mention), the predictions have been out of whack with reality for months. Some people still insist that the predictions are correct, and reality itself is out of whack. That's the very opposite of scientific, and that's what bothers me.
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It never would've predicted a zero chance to be here. A 60% chance prediction will be wrong 4 out of 10 times
That doesn't make it a bad prediction.
I don't like that chart because the methodology is random. Heavily weighting a rolling 25 game Fenwick over other stats at this point in the year seems arbitrary to me