Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
How far in advance is it accurate though?
On December 1, Toronto had a positive goal differential and they were in a playoff spot. Today, Toronto has a negative goal differential and they're well out of a playoff spot. On both dates, they are where they should be based on goal differential, but their December 1 position did nothing to predict their March 8 position.
|
Can't find the article now (still searching), but when Fenwick Close, Corsi 5v5 and goal differential are compared at various points through the season goal differential was worst early on, and only slightly less than Fenwick as the season progressed. Fenwick was the best all the way through.
There's lots that doesn't explain. Maybe in general that's true, but what if for example, a team has an elite goal differential but a poor Fenwick close (as in the flames situation)?