Quote:
Originally Posted by Resurrection
I think maybe we're talking about 2 separate things or I'm possibly confused.
Goal differential is a great predictor of where teams are now
Corsi is a good predictor of where teams likely are headed
yes? no?
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Maybe.
But I expect one can make an argument that teams who outscore are likely to continue to do so... Just as teams who out shoot are likely to be better.
But yeah, if you are always chasing the puck, it's much less likely to continue. But that was the whole crux of the Flames v Oilers this season. The Oilers had to improve dramatically and the Flames had to falter, just as dramatically. And we know how that went.
Of course there are anomalies. And I guess both the Flames and Oilers are. That doesn't discount 'advanced stats' - just shows they simply generally a model of outcomes. I just don't think it's that great a model.