Quote:
Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing
My read of Pro-Corsi writings is that they don't actually take shot locations and zone possession or rushes into account, and simply state more shots towards the net means you're better. That is the issue I have, as sure you can take 100 shots from the boards, and have great Corsi, or you can control the puck, pass it around and wait for a quality shot, and have a low Corsi, but score. Advanced stats don't seem to take the latter into account and rely on the former as gospel.
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I kind of disagree. Most of the better ones don't speak in terms of which team is "better", rather in terms of trends and what the mean. The opinion pieces are garbage, I'd agree. The interesting ones talk about which metric is better at determining what and don't wade into which team is a better team and which isn't.
They may state things like "x team has a poor corsi 5v5 and therefore is less likely to have success, which is a good and defensible position whether we at this site enjoy it or not.
Some talk about randomness and interchange it with luck. If corsi is truly predictive of success (and it generally is, that can't be disputed), if the flames of this year or Colorado of last year were "luck" or random, they would be one in many generations kind of "luck". Sustainability is another discussion altogether.
In my opinion Toronto and Colorado ate the worst things to happen to the analytics movement. They are the trump cats for those who don't understand analytics. That's two examples of regression that give blind faith where there's many others that disprove it. It's the "if evolution is true, why are there still monkeys" kind of logic.
High corsi is a hallmark of elite teams, and that can be proven until the views come home. Poor corsi is a hallmark of terrible teams and that can be proven. However, a good corsi team isn't necessarily an elite team and a terrible corsi team isn't necessarily terrible. THAT is where there's so much misinformation and misunderstanding. We aren't there yet and I'm not sure why some feel we've arrived at the end already