Quote:
Originally Posted by Freeway
If talent is evenly distributed, PDO predicts that over an INFINITE number of games, every team will have 100 Corsi (e.g., shooting/save percentages will regress/progress to that point). There is no consensus over what a suitable sample size is in order to say somebody was "right," nor is there a consensus over whether NHL talent is evenly distributed (it probably isn't).
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PDO predicts nothing. Every shot is either saved or not, so it's simple math that for the
league overall, SV% = 100 - SH%. For the league as a whole those numbers are directly (inversely) related to each other and the
league average PDO will always be exactly 100.
This simply does not apply to an individual team, no matter how infinite your sample size. Does having a good goalie make your shooters worse? Does having a lot of snipers make your goalie a sieve?? BS, there is zero correlation.
If every team had exactly the same talent then sure, you'd expect them all to score and save the same on aggregate and have a PDO of 100. But that is an absurd condition that clearly does not and never will exist.
The only thing PDO does is suggest if you are getting better than average goaltending and/or shooting. Guess what? Some teams do get better than average tending and/or shooting - they're called good teams. PDO in fact is a poor indicator even of that, since bad SV% cancels out good SH% and vice versa. PDO obscures the data rather that clarifying it. If you want to know if team is getting historically rare SV% or SH% look at SV% and SH% - PDO tells you #####