Quote:
Originally Posted by Quincy Egg
Except we ended up being right about the Avalanche, and most of us realize what the definition of an adequate sample size is.
|
This is very muddled thinking.
The whole point of using these numbers is to construct models that reliably predict winning and losing trends. There is no "ended up being right" in a quantitative model. In the case of the Avalanche, the model clearly failed last year.
Real life is not there to fit the model, the model is there to fit the data.
Edit: Apologies to all who made the same point before me. I'm the world's slowest post crafter, bar none.