Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
Colorado and Dallas are done. Finishing at 11 games over .500 is almost impossible.
If the goal is 95 points or 13 games over .500, then San Jose would need to finish their last 21 games at 6 over (13-7-1 or so). That's too tall an order I think. I'm actually comfortable calling them out of the playoffs. They still have a chance, but with their play of late, and the competition, I don't see it happening.
Vancouver needs only to play at .500 and they have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league. Their average opponent points% for the rest of their games is only around .500 and they get a few more teams on the second night of back to backs. They do hold our fate a little as they play the Kings 3 times, and Jets and sharks twice each. And don't look now, but their goal differential is almost tied with ours. I'm comfortable giving them a spot.
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I'm with you on Dallas and Colorado but I think it's still probably too early to count Vancouver absolutely in or San Jose absolutely out, for basically inverse reasons: Vancouver's lack of on-ice talent (half their roster is hurt), and San Jose's wealth of on-ice talent.
13-7-1 shouldn't be an unachievable feat for the Sharks by any means if they'd just get their s*** together and their power play scoring again. They haven't done it so far, but it's sort of like looking at the Kings prior to this 8 game winning streak they're on, but to a lesser degree - the Sharks aren't as good as the Kings, but they don't need to win 8 games in a row, either. Win 3 games in a row, win five of seven, and you're right back in good shape.
Vancouver, meanwhile... for me, their schedule easiness is completely offset by injuries. And I'm not as convinced by the schedule strength - yes, in terms of opp win%, but then there's this methodology.
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http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1842181)
It's not even so much the goaltending, as I don't see Lack as that big a downgrade from Miller over a span of 20 games, provided he doesn't start them all in a row. It's more the defense. Playing a bunch of AHLers and Luca Sbisa every night has to catch up to you sometime. They basically have no top four defensemen - Hamhuis is there but reportedly has a groin injury that will need offseason surgery. I'd still bet they make it but I'm not giving them a spot.
I am however completely willing to give LA a spot. This is a team that tells the regular season to go **** itself on a regular basis. They're getting in and they're probably just going to win the whole thing again. What a bunch of jerks.