Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Indeed it does. He says, on this point, that he has a second model that incorporates special teams data (particularly shot generation and suppression data on PP / PK) that is slightly more accurate. However, the difference is minimal (i.e. it wouldn't show up over the remainder of the season according to him) that he publishes the chart without that stuff factored in.
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Yeah he's clearly glossing over the special teams impact. We all (should) understand these models have limitations in their effectiveness. I don't know the details of his work. Maybe he is using "rates" of shots generated/suppressed and not "absolute values" and determining it doesn't make a difference.
Winnipeg's PK rate is 80.5% and Calgary's is 80.0%, doesn't seem to be significant.
Yet Winnipeg has given up 22 more powerplay goals than Calgary in 60 games, and still has a better PK rate. That is crazy. it explains the discrepancy in overall goal differential.
Another point (I digress) is teams like WPG have high possession stats because they are "taking liberties" to gain an edge all over the ice. I attend 40 NHL games a year and see it all over the ice, not just around the puck. Refs can only call so much. Those teams gain advantages 5on5 but pay a price with an extra penalty every game or so. Can they score enough with the 5on5 advantage to compensate?
This becomes significant in a third period, game or series if they have to change their game to more discipline. They no longer take liberties and lose much of their 5on5 advantages.
On the flip side, a team like CGY doesn't take as many liberties as evidenced by the fewer power plays given, and their advanced stats reflect the extra restraints taken. If the refs weren't calling penalties then CGY would be free to change their game to take more liberties and better level the ice 5on5. Obviously CGY has smaller skilled players and they are happy to take extra PP opportunities and PP shots on goal, even if it means giving up more 5on5 shots against.
The teams with excellent 5on5 stats combined with simultaneous discipline at 5on5 are the real heavyweights that should be at the top of everyone's rankings. And they are obviously at the top of the standings.