Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Cube Inmate
Insightful  Although...on this one thing, I'll finally agree with you.
The concept of "in control" is kind of lost already, though. If this thing settles down in the next couple of days/weeks...back to the status quo of (say) a couple of months ago...then things are still largely out of control. Hezbollah will still control S. Lebanon, and the "legitimate" leader of Lebanon has now come out and accused Israel of "cruel retaliation" or something to that effect. They're not going to be at a negotiating table anytime soon.
On the other hand, if this goes the distance and Israel invades and occupies Lebanon, it's even more out of control.
I.e./ "The region is ****ed!" |
Okay, being a little more serious about it this time, I think we are indeed at a tipping point. I think the situation is becoming more dire on both sides. I think the Lebanese government knows they cannot control Hezbollah and have communicated it that way to the Israelis. Hezbollah was long ago expected to fall in with the Lebanese armed services, but resisted, continuing to operate independently. I think Israel has blamed the government hoping they would be able to appeal to Hezbollah one way or the other. I feel this has only hardened the resolve of the "freedom fighters"/"terrorist organization"/"militia".
I think Israel is now realizing they pushed in the majority of their chips and don't have the hand to win the game in the fashion they hoped. They now have to re-evaluate and make sure they come out of this looking like they were going in with the right intentions. The only solution may be all out war just to save face. How else is Israel going to explain taking out all that key infrastructure? I think the only way Israel can come out of this clean is to invade and occupy.
How that will play out in the rest of the region is unclear at this time. IMO, Iran and Syria have been way too quiet. Egypt concerns me as well. When these players are not being hread from in such an important matter to regional stability, that tells me something is up. These three parties could be holding off to see what the Israeli's next move is. Any way you look at it, Israel is going to come out of this looking pretty bad and responsible for a gross over reaction in attacking civilian infrastructure targets. The next move is theirs, and I think Israel is wondering what they can do to come out of this with the least amount of damage.
One thing that does concern me greatly, is the ex-patriots being shipped out. That's a clear indicator that other governments see this as getting uglier in the immediate, and it lasting for a while. I can't see a country recovering their ex-patriots without having an idea where this was headed. At this point, I would think this is going to head in the wrong direction in the next few days based on the expedited schedule for getting the citizens of other countries out of the region. My advice to anyone i the region. Duck and cover.