Spoiler tags for size
Flames: 32-22-4, 68 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 7th in the West, 14th in NHL.
Ducks: 35-16-7, 77 points, 1st in the Pacific, 3rd in the West, 6th in NHL.
I’m still having trouble figuring Anaheim out. They really aren’t that great of a team stat-wise, yet they have been dominant this year. Oh ho! But not lately. Losers of 2 in a row and 3-6-1 in their last 10 has dropped them to…well, 8 points ahead of the 2nd place Canucks. They’re still good in 1-goal games, but they haven’t had many of those lately. Of the Ducks last 10 games, only 3 have been decided by 1 goal, and the Ducks are indeed 2-0-1 in those games. However, the other 7 games have been decided by an average of almost 3 goals a game, and the Ducks are 1-6-0 in those games. They’ve given up a lot of goals in their last 10, averaging 4.00 GA/G. Offensively challenged at times, they have still been scoring 2.50 GF/G, but obviously that isn’t good enough to overcome the porous defense. One would likely argue that it’s because Andersen is injured, but he’s only been out since Feb. 10, a string of 3 games. Compounding the issue now, they’ve lost Sami Vatanen for 4-6 weeks, and may be without Hampus Lindholm tonight as he nurses an ankle injury that kept him out of the last game. Despite those injuries, the Ducks still boast a lot of depth on the blue line. Not great depth, but capable all the same.
The offense has been stagnant at times of late. They haven’t managed more than 3 goals in the last 6 games, and their offensive leader and chief playmaker, Ryan Getzlaf, hasn’t scored a point in 4 games. That’s odd for someone who is a point-per-game player, but even more concerning is that he’s been held pointless in 7 of the last 10 games. The offensive load has shifted to Corey Perry, who has scored 9 points in the last 10 games, including 5 goals. Their regular linemate, Patrick Maroon, has gone ice cold, scoring just 1 point in his last 8 games. There’s also been little to no secondary scoring for the Ducks. Kesler, the team’s 3rd leading scorer is pointless in his last 5 games, and it doesn’t help that 21-goal man Matt Beleskey is out several weeks with an injury. This lack of top 6 production has forced the Ducks to do the unthinkable, put Rene Bourque on the top line. Yes, that’s how bad it’s been in Duck-land lately, when Bourque is the best option you have for 1st line left wing. This is a player who’s been in and out of the lineup and was getting around 11 minutes of ice a night, not to mention he’s only managed 2 points in his last 10 games. If that doesn’t spur the Glencross to Anaheim rumors even more, I don’t know what will.
So all the recent struggles aside, the Ducks are clearly the superior team to the Flames because they’re ahead by 9 points, right? I’m not so sure about that. I’ll just put up the numbers and let you fine educated people be the judge:
Regulation and Overtime Wins: Flames-29 (of 32), Ducks-28 (of 35)
Shootout wins: Flames-3, Ducks-7
OT/SOL: Flames-4, Ducks-7
That’s an extra 7 points just from shootout wins and loser points. Hardly dominant stuff, and not really a whole lot better than the Flames.
Ok skeptics, I hear you grumbling already. Need more proof? Fine. (bold for emphasis)
GF/G:
Flames-2.84, Ducks-2.81
GA/G:
Flames-2.57, Ducks-2.74
5 on 5 F/A ratio:
Flames-1.06, Ducks-0.98
PP: Flames-17.5%,
Ducks-17.7%
PK: Flames-79.8%,
Ducks-81.3%
SF/G: Flames-27.2 ,
Ducks-30.0
SA/G:
Flames-28.2, Ducks-29.1
In fact, despite the point difference in the standings, and our inexplicably horrible record in their building, if these two teams were to meet in the first round of the playoffs, I think it would be a surprisingly even series and one that Calgary could win. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on the underdog Flames. In fact, I would be sure to do that tonight.
Roster Notes: Smid is finally back skating with the team, but no timeline for his return yet. Paul Byron is out for at least a couple of games with a lower body injury. Markus Granlund was recalled to take his spot in the lineup, and David Wolf was returned to Adirondack. Sam Bennett’s status is still uncertain, and he’s almost ready to return to action, so look for a decision before the Flames begin their Eastern Conference road trip. There are also several rumors swirling around Curtis Glencross, as it looks as though he and the team are soon to part ways. Tonight could be his last home game for the Calgary Flames, so make sure you let him know how much you appreciated him if you’re at the game.
As mentioned above, the Ducks are without Andersen, Beleskey, Vatanan, and possibly Lindholm for the game tonight.
Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Glencross-Jooris-Raymond
Granlund-Stajan-Colborne
Brodie-Giordano
Russell-Wideman
Diaz-Engelland
Hiller
Ducks
Bourque-Getzlaf-Perry
Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg
Maroon-Rakell-Palmieri
Smith-Pelley-Thompson-Etem
Fowler-Beauchemin
Stoner-Lovejoy
Brewer-Manson
Gibson
Go Flames Go!!!