Quote:
Originally Posted by _Q_
The correct way to look at it is this:
Assuming 15 teams out of 29 are interested, and Glencross is willing to go to any of the 6 teams on his list. If there is a match between Glencross' list and Treliving list then we have a trade. So essentially we can look at this problem as a pot with 29 balls, 15 of which are yes and 14 are no. Glencross picks 6 balls randomly. The only way he doesn't get traded is if all 6 balls read "no". Any other combination means he gets traded.
So the probability of all 6 balls reading no and him not getting traded is therefore calculated as such
(15/29)*(14/28)*(13/27)*(12/26)*(11/25)*(10/24) = 1%
Therefore the probability of him getting traded is equal to 99%.
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In addition:
Glencross does not pick teams randomly, and the teams asking about him are not random.
Only teams that think they can make the playoffs would be interested in a UFA rental. Glencross is only interested in teams that could go deep in the playoffs. So quite likely every team Glencross would go to has also asked about him, and at worst there's maybe two teams that Glencross would go to that isn't interested because they have their sights on someone else.
(Of course mutual interest does not necessarily mean a deal gets done.)