Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch
Fair enough, but the Flames are only 3-1 in the shootout, thus a remarkable 7-2 in 4 on 4. The Flames proficiency at 4-4 - a situation that suits their style of play - isn't measured by 5v5 Corsi. Nor is their stellar penalty performance - while they are neither very good at PK nor great at PP, the differential in number of penalties taken gives them a significant special teams advantage.
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A thousand thanks for your observations about 4 on 4 and penalty differential.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/teamstats.htm...enaltyKillTime
Flames have almost 106 minutes of extra 5 on 4 time because they don't take many penalties 5 on 5 (which may partially explain why teams have better 5 on 5 possession stats). 5 on 5 defensively , the Flames focus on inside position, using sticks in lanes and blocking shots. It's almost like a penalty kill in their own end, and it works.
They have 103 extra shots on PPs vs opponents' PPs. Teams usually shoot 13% on PP vs 8% 5 on 5. That massive penalty differential should result in 13 goals differential.
Not only that, Flames PK save percentage is around 28th in the league. Opponents have been getting lucky bounces and should have scored fewer goals on PK. Special teams PDO is around 95 or 96 when it should be 100 (according to PDO guys).
So yeah, they have high shooting % 5 on 5, but their PP and PK shooting and save % is due for big improvement. If those percentages even out, Flames could still be a playoff calibre team.
Most analytics guys overemphasize the 5 on 5 part of the game, while a third of the game is played either special teams or 4 on 4. In the Flames case, their PP time vs PK time is massive and that should offset the 5 on 5 corsi etc.