Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
Advanced stats are what they are. They measure what they say they do.
Acting like something with a 0.5 (or whatever it is) correlation to points means nothing is dumb, but so is acting like something with that type of correlation is a sure-fire solution to determining which team is better.
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Isn't it more like .25?
http://www.sportingcharts.com/articl...tatistics.aspx
That's not even acceptable, let alone sure fire. You wouldn't use a coefficent like that for any sort real world predictions. I can't remember my stats classes from University but I'm pretty sure the minimum acceptable coefficient for a statistic to be valid as a predictor would be around .6 -.8 and even then a .6 coefficient means you're barely right more than 50% of the time.
Again, these stats are a great insight for more in-depth analysis, but they are useless when it comes to predicting wins on their own.