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Old 02-11-2015, 08:11 PM   #18
formulate
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Join Date: Dec 2013
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Thanks Bingo, this is a really helpful snapshot.

To make a prediction, I calculated the 'expected value' for each team's remaining games, giving each a projected total based on performance up to this point and opponents remaining.

Home%/(Home%+OppRoad%) = Expected Home % (and the reverse for road)
Multiply each by the number of remaining games (separate for home and away), and taking into account that the average game is worth 2.24(ish) points....

Vancouver (2nd pacific) - 95.79
Calgary (3rd pacific) - 94.75
Winnipeg (1st wildcard) - 94.63
San Jose (2nd wildcard) - 93.31
Minnesota - 90.611
Los Angeles - 88.66
Dallas - 87.87
Colorado - 85.61

LA and Minny were hit hardest by some combination of poor road performance, lots of road games remaining, and tough road schedule left. Obviously there is nothing to say current performance will hold, but these projections give a pretty optimistic view for Flames fans, showing that the 92 point mark could get you in.
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