[Cali Panthers Fan]

All this talk of 96 points or 94 points is just a rough estimate remember. The barrier could be as high as 100 points this particular season, just for argument's sake. You never know how the season will shake out.

Personally, I like point percentage, because that gives you a better understanding of what the pace is currently at, and what will likely be required to be a playoff team.

For example, here are the point percentages of the 8 teams currently in the playoffs, and the percentage of the teams that are close.

1. Nashville-.720
2. Anaheim-.706
3. St. Louis-.700
4. Chicago-.627
5. Vancouver-.602
6. Calgary-.587
7. San Jose-.587
8. Winnipeg-.575
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9. Minnesota-.540
10. Dallas-.540
11. L.A.-.540
12. Colorado-.539

If teams play at their current paces, Winnipeg would take the 8th seed with 94 points. For any of those 4 teams chasing Winnipeg to get in, they would have to win at a 62.5% point percentage the rest of the way, so basically being as good as Chicago has so far this year over the next 32 games. Could one team catch fire and do it? Sure. Could Winnipeg, or a different team, fall out of contention with a record well below what they've done so far this year? Absolutely.

Just for example, for the Flames or Sharks to fall to 94 points, they would have to play at a 55% point pace, or basically being just a little better than Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota and L.A., OR, being just as good as the Florida Panthers have been this year. That would still give the Flames a good shot at the playoffs however, as one of those teams would have to play to the level of Chicago, as previously stated.

BUT, just to take out the aberrations, the Flames pace has been marred by an 8 game losing streak that has been unprecedented, even with the poor results of the last two seasons. The worst streak last year was 6 in a row, and 5 the year before that, our two worst seasons in a decade, one of them our worst season ever. For arguments sake, let's just look at our point percentage if you remove those 8 games from the season so far.

Current Games Played: 52
Current Points: 61
Current point%: .587

Hypothetical Games Played: 44
Hypothetical points: 60
Hypothetical Point%: .682

Ok, so the first thought is, "those games still count and shouldn't be ignored", and I agree, except that it should be considered an aberration because of how different our point percentages are with, and without that streak. Further to the point, I'd argue that the Flames this year are much closer to a team that is unlikely to go on a big losing streak, rather than be prone to them. Why? Because up to that point, the Flames had failed to lose 2 games in regulation all season long. Since then, they have only lost 3 in a row once, indicating that multiple losses in a row are an aberration, and not the norm for this team. That wasn't the case the last two seasons where there were several streaks of 3,4,5 game losing streaks.

For arguments sake, let's allow a 5 game losing streak (one better than our worst streak in our worst season ever) instead of 8.

Current Games Played: 52
Current Points: 61
Current Point%: .587

Hypothetical Games Played: 52
Hypothetical Points: 67
Hypothetical Point%: .644

Even allowing for a 5 game losing streak, or getting 3 more wins during the course of that streak, would give the Flames a point percentage around the level of the New York Islanders (.650) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (.647). Now look at the goal differentials (another reliable measure of team success) and you will see the Flames' +20 is right on par with both the Islanders (+17) and the Penguins (+18). The only team that would have a similar point% and a very dissimilar goal differential is the 'Hawks (+37) who have struggled to win close games this year, but have no trouble blowing teams out.

If you take that hypothetical .644 point%, which aligns well with their goal differential, you would assume that they would be close to that pace the rest of the way. Even if they can only manage a .600 point %, which would be below what you could expect but close to their current point percentage, they would end up with 97 points, pretty much guaranteeing a comfortable playoff spot. If they were closer to the hypothetical .644 it would be as much as 99 points, and I've never seen anyone miss the playoffs with that number. If you want to have fun, the earlier hypothetical of 0.682 would lead to 102 points, but I don't necessarily expect that to happen.

Basically, if this has become a tl/dr, I am arguing that even if you allow for a 5 game losing streak earlier this year, the Flames should be considered on par with teams like NYI, and PIT, and maybe just a step behind CHI. That's pretty heady company, and I have no doubts in my mind that the Flames will have a playoff spot come April. They could probably endure a couple more rough patches of 3 game losing streaks, or 1 point in 4 games, and still make the playoffs.