Flames: 28-20-3, 59 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 7th in the West, 15th in NHL.
Sharks: 27-17-7, 61 points, 2nd in the Pacific, 5th in the West, 12th in NHL.
It’s probably safe to assume that with the Anaheim Ducks 11 points ahead of us (even after 2 straight losses), 2nd spot in the Pacific is probably the best possibility for a playoff position we could hope for…if we make the playoffs that is. Tonight is a battle for that spot, as the Sharks come into town after eeking out a point against the Oilers in the “Shark Tank”. The Flames own the third tie-breaker against the Sharks, as they both have played the same amount of games and have the same amount of Regulation/OT Wins (who would have said that at the beginning of the year?), the third tie-breaker being points earned against opponent. The Flames have 4 points against San Jose to their 3, with tonight’s game, and one more to be played within a week, but a win tonight would secure at least a tie in the head to head matchup points against a divisional opponent that’s been neck and neck with the Flames nearly the entire season. We can talk about beating the Canucks or the Oilers because we dislike them, but this is probably our biggest divisional rival these days, and every point against them matters.
It’s surprising, to be sure, but when you look at the performance of these two teams and the way they play, it’s not that shocking to see the Flames near the top of the division. They own the best goal differential in the Pacific at +18 (next closest is Anaheim at +13), and surprisingly the Sharks have only a +3 differential, yet have had similar success to the Flames. They both have comparable home and road records (Flames 14-10-2/14-10-1, Sharks 14-8-4/13-9-3), comparable offensive production (Flames 2.86 GF/G, Sharks 2.76 GF/G), and comparable defensive games (Flames 2.55 GA/G, Sharks 2.65 GA/G), but the big categories are where the similarities end. The Sharks have the 8th best powerplay at 21.3%, compared to Calgary’s 21st ranked 17.1%. They have a PK that works at an 82% efficiency (14th ranked) compared to the Flames terrible 26th ranked PK (77.3%). San Jose is also the league’s 7th best faceoff team at 51.8% compared to the Flames pitiful 47.5% (27th ranked).
Oddly enough, these are both teams that have strong and weak periods. The Flames and Sharks have 44 and 42 goals against respectively in the 1st period, and while the Sharks have managed 38 first period goals, that’s still a -4 differential, but the Flames have just 30 first period goals for a -14 differential. The 2nd period is the Sharks strongest in which they’ve scored 53 goals to 45 against for a +8 differential, well above their season average. The Flames have been pretty poor in the 2nd with 43 goals for and 51 goals against for a -8 differential, but still not nearly as bad as the first. Here comes the big equalizer, the 3rd period. The Sharks have scored 48 goals for to 45 goals against for a measly +3 differential, but that’s just a little better than the league average. The Flames however lead the league in both goals for AND goals against in the 3rd, with 66 goals for and 33 goals against for a whopping +33 goal differential. I’ve truly never seen anything like it before. This team literally only needs to play one period to win a game. It’s crazy. If perchance the Flames can only manage a tie after 60, I’d take that too, as the Flames own a 10-3 OT/SO record compared to the Sharks 4-7 record in the same category. Simply put, the Flames are clutch this year.
Watch out for Joe Pavelski tonight, as he's caught fire of late. 3 points against Edmonton last game and 8 points in his last 6 games. Even scarier is Jumbo Joe, who has 10 points over the same time frame. In fact, the top 5 of Pavelski, Thornton, Couture, Burns, and Marleau have all been good lately, and all year. So good, that of the team's 386 points scored, those 5 account for 53% of the team's production. Obviously it will be difficult to shut every one of them down, you just hope that they all don't have a big night against you and keep the rest of the team off the scoreboard.
Lineup notes: Backlund looks like he will return to the lineup for the Flames after missing last game with an illness. Wolf, Glencross, and Smid remain on the IR for the foreseeable future. Baertschi, Granlund, and Wotherspoon are the likely healthy scratches. The Sharks will be without Tommy Wingels, Justin Braun, and now Tye McGinn who went down the other night with an injury.
Flames
Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Jones
Raymond-Jooris-Colborne
Bollig-Stajan-Byron
Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wideman
Diaz-Engelland
Hiller
Sharks
Karlsson-Thornton-Pavelski
Marleau-Couture-Nieto
Hertl-Sheppard-Goodrow
Scott-Desjardins-Kennedy
Vlasic-Burns
Dillon-Tennyson
Irwin-Hannan
Niemi
Go Flames Go!!!