Quote:
Originally Posted by GioforPM
The 3rd rounder given up for Bollig is only a bad trade if the guy the Flames would have chosen there makes the NHL and plays better thasn Bollig. So we will never know, but you can probably find stats on the average number of 3rd rounders who make it.
|
Scott Cullen had an article last summer that examines this. He has the chances of a 3rd rounder developing into an impact player (top 6 F, top 4 D) to be between 5.5 and 8.5%
Chances of a 3rd rounder playing in at least 100 NHL games is between 24 and 37.5% (the 37.5 is for picks 61-70 and it drops off from there).
Average player rating drafted is between 2.16 and 2.32 (2 is a minor league player, 3 is a very good minor league player).
Bottom line is that you'd be fortunate to draft someone as good as Bollig, with a tiny chance of drafting an impact player.
http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673