Quote:
Originally Posted by Weitz
The issue with +/- is that it is only based on goals and goals are a rare occurrence. A goal scored right when you step on the ice has a dramatic effect on your +/- where as 1 shot attempt against does not. Corsi takes the sudden and unexpected goal because someone made a bad change away from judging your play.
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Yes, but when it is pointed out that Corsi does not necessarily correspond to results (i.e. disproportionate or "unsustainable" PDOs), the answer is that shooting percentage come back to the average so it is actually a reliable predictable for goals.
Really, the point is that stats are indicators not predictors and I think Green Lantern's summary of +/- is an accurate interpretation of what is actually happening (or not happening) with certain players on the ice.
But if you have Corsi stats that point to a different conclusion, I'd be interested to see them. It seems to me that Corsi and +/- should roughly correspond at least in relative terms when looking at a team although strength of competition and roles can cause fluctuations.