The 70% chance is based on Sportsclubstats "weighted" formula. When you go to 50/50, the odds drop to 62.4%, meanwhile San Jose firms, but LA actually declines slightly
Weighted:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html
50/50:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL2.html
What does "Weighted" mean
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Originally Posted by sportsclubstats
The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.
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This means that LA Kings' road heavy record is factored in, and quality of opposition is also considered. This means that at least in the eyes of the data geniuses, the Flames have the most favourable run home between the Flames, Kings and Sharks