Flames: 23-18-3, 49 points, 5th in the Pacific, 9th in the West, 18th in NHL.
Sharks: 24-16-5, 53 points, 3rd in the Pacific, 7th in the West, 15th in NHL.
The road trip continues. So far, so good. Wins over the Vancouver Canucks (amazing) and the Arizona Coyotes (expected) have this current 5 game trip that leads up to the all-star break at 2-0-0. Even if they were to only get 1 point in these next 3 games, I would consider it a moderately successful road trip through some very tough buildings. That being said, to be a serious playoff team you have to beat the teams directly ahead of you in the standings, whether you're on a tough road trip or not. The good news is that nobody has games in hand on the Flames anymore, and nobody near the Flames in the standings in the division is doing particularly well of late (most are around the .500 mark in their past 10 games). That's good because the Avs and Stars have been playing better of late and are right on the Flames' heels in the wild card standings. While there's still plenty of season left to play, these points matter right now. Several games against divisional opponents in a row are key in determine the standings now and at the end of the year. I would argue that the Flames have done an incredible job in that regard this year, owning a 12-3-1 record against the Pacific division. The next closest is Vancouver at a 10-4-2 mark. The Predators own a 12-3-2 record against their division, but that's as close as it gets in the West. The Metropolitan leading Islanders have the best record against division in the league at 14-2-0. That's usually an indicator of standings in each division, but for the Flames they have fallen flat against the East, owning a pitiful 6-11-2 record. What gives? How can they be so good against a division that they theoretically shouldn't match up well against, yet so poor against smaller skilled teams in the East? All I can think of is there is an urgency factor against divisional opponents that Hartley instills, but the team can't seem to get up for teams like the Panthers and Sabres. Even a .500 record against the East (which even the Oilers own) would give the Flames 54 points and put them firmly 2nd in the division. In short, these divisional games are important, but the Flames really need to play better against the rest of the league if they're to have a chance at the playoffs.
The Sharks haven't been anything special this year, but are still in the thick of it. Part of that is the lack of a dominant home record, something that was a bit of a calling card of past Sharks teams. This year they are 11-7-2, not bad, but not dominant. Compare that to last year's 29-7-5, or the previous year's 17-2-5, they just don't have that swagger on their home ice anymore. One has to wonder how much that is a result of the locker room drama that has plagued this team ever since their incredible playoff collapse last year. Coaches have been perpetually on the hot seat, captaincies have been stripped, players have been rumored to be traded constantly, yet the Sharks are still competitive. It speaks to the character of the players to battle through media scrutiny and constant whispers. Say what you want about this team in the playoffs, but in the regular season they always give their all, and it takes a consistent effort to beat them. They are no longer led exclusively by Thornton and Marleau. Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture have grabbed this team and put it on their shoulders, handling the bulk of the offensive production and leadership. Pavelski and Couture sit tied for 1st in points on the team, but one is hot and the other is not. Pavelski has just 1 point in his past 4 games, while Couture has 7 points in his past 6 games. As for Marleau and Thornton, Jumbo Joe has quietly been putting up consistent points, having only 3 pointless games in his last 12. Marleau has just 2 points in his past 15 games, very un-Marleau-like numbers. Tomas Hertl has not be very good this year and has been relegated to 4th line duties, but the surprise has been Melker Karlsson, coming in to play on the top line and score 10 points in 16 games. Don't know much about him, so keep an eye on him tonight.
So in come the Flames, continuing to ride the red hot Joni Ortio as he makes his 3rd straight start ahead of Hiller. The goaltending has been so good that this team looks like they are building confidence in themselves again. They still have poor periods of play, but that swagger they displayed earlier in the year, when they could come back from any deficit, or take over any 3rd period and win a tight game, is most definitely returning. Now if only they could get the power play working again. There were signs of it getting back on track against the Coyotes, but that team has an awful PK, so I wouldn't get too excited. The Flames' power play that was once operating at over 20% and in the top 10 is now down to 17.6% and ranked 19th. It's impressive that they have still managed 2.82 GF/G (11th ranked) with such a struggling PP. The one thing the Flames haven't faltered at all this year is 5 on 5 play, still working at a 1.09 ratio (12th ranked). This is good news because the Sharks are not great in that regard, sporting a 0.89 F/A ratio (24th ranked). They make up for that with their lethal power play (20.7%, 8th ranked), and their strong penalty kill (81.6%, 14th ranked), putting their combined special teams at 102.3%, always a strong sign. The Flames, for comparison, have a combined special teams percentage of 93.5%, usually the mark of a non-playoff team. The penalty kill is pretty woeful, at just 76.2%, so it's a good thing they've taken the 2nd fewest minor penalties in the entire league. Let's hope they continue that trend tonight against a power play that will likely hurt us if we let it.
Roster notes: Glencross is out with a lower body injury, but no timeline has been set for his return. Smid looks likely to return to the lineup tonight and Diaz is likely to sit. Granlund tweaked something in practice, so Mason Raymond is tapped to return to the lineup tonight. Ortio is confirmed to make the start for the Flames, and Niemi is the likely starter for the Sharks. No major injuries for the Sharks at the moment.
Flames
Gaudreau-Backlund-Hudler
Bouma-Monahan-Jones
Raymond-Shore-Colborne
Bollig-Stajan-Byron
Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wideman
Smid-Engelland
Ortio
Sharks
Karlsson-Couture-Pavelski
Marleau-Thornton-Nieto
Goodrow-Sheppard-Wingels
McGinn-Hertl-Kennedy
Vlasic-Burns
Dillon-Braun
Irwin-Tennyson
Niemi
Go Flames Go!!!