I'd say the safest route is to pick the BPA in the 1st round, and if a defenseman isn't within your range, probably best to pick a forward with high upside and spend a couple of picks in the 2nd/3rd/4th round on a defender.
I think a defenseman in the top 10 is more likely to be a home run, outside of the top 10 is where I'd probably be looking to most likely pick a forward, unless a D dropped.
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