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Originally Posted by ExiledFlamesFan
Oh man. Look at your own data to see the obvious correlation. You're not that lazy are you!?
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Not lazy at all. We apparently interpret the data differently.
Quote:
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So there you have it, the housing market did not take over a year to correct following the drop in oil. Glad we busted that myth.
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Glad we're already ignoring the seasonal trends.
Averages
September 08 444k
September 09 459k
That's a 3.3% increase year over year following the market crash.
September 07 471k
September 08 444k
That's a That's a 5.7% decrease year over year prior to the market crash.
Median
Year May Dec
2006 383 368 -3.9
2007 421 407 -3.3
2008 395 380 -3.7
2009 400 401 0
2010 390 389 0
2011 400 393 -1.8
2012 412 420 +2
2013 450 463 +2.9
2014 489 478 -2.2
That's a seasonal average decline of 1.1% from September to December over the last 9 years.
If a $100 crash in oil prices resulting in an immediate 2.7% deviation from the norm is the doom and gloom you're predicting everything is probably going to be ok in the near term...
I'm not saying house prices in Calgary are not impacted by oil prices. They absolutely are. I just believe there happens to be a lag.
1. Oil crashes
2. People lose jobs
3. Immigration slows down
4. Housing demand weakens
5. Housing devalues
This doesn't happen overnight.