Quote:
Originally Posted by driveway
You can go deeper into the numbers if you want, and if you want to disregard them altogether that's fine, but don't say there is no context to reflect score-effects, that's simply wrong.
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When someone quotes Corsi or Fenwick close (i.e. within 1), however, those numbers leave out the most important score effect. A team leading by 1 is not at all in the same position as a team trailing by 1. In fact, a team trailing by 1 is more like a team trailing by 2 or 3 than it is like a team leading by 1.
Your own numbers, for instance, show the Flames’ Corsi when leading by 1 as 41.7%, but when trailing by one, 59.4%. Including both of those numbers in the ‘close’ number is a terrific way of obscuring the information that the numbers convey separately.
Remember the old joke about the statistician who had one foot in a bucket of boiling water, and the other foot in a block of ice. On the average, he was comfortable.