Here is a derived regression equation using the last 5 NHL seasons as data:
Projected Team Points = (249.1 x 5-on-5 Close Fenwick) – 32.6
R^2 = 0.3332 (essentially meaning that 33% of the variation in points in explained by 5-on-5 fenwick close)
Source here:
http://www.sportingcharts.com/articl...tatistics.aspx
Predictions
(using current data from
http://www.puckalytics.com/teamstats.html)
Pacific Division
Canucks 98
Ducks 98
Sharks 97
Oilers 91
Kings 87
Flames 86
Coyotes 82
Your president's trophy winners?
The Minnesota Wild with 109 points
I think the point being is that not one single variable will ever be an accurate predictor of... well... anything.
And I expect you could use a 5 variable equation that might explain 66% of the variation in this case.
But people use FF%Close because it has the 'best' single variable relationship to points. And it's a quick and easy lookup, FWIW...