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Old 12-10-2014, 10:49 AM   #25
Philly06Cup
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Corsi includes blocked shots; Fenwick does not.

Corsi is supposed to be correlated to puck possession. Fenwick is supposed to be correlated to scoring chances.

There's a lot of enthusiasm for these metric by fancy statisticians. There is some skepticism though.

See: http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/

He's a fancy sabermetric guy who is very skeptical of Corsi and Fenwick. A new metric being derived is 'TANGO' which does not weigh all shots equally, but gives more weight to goals.

"A metric that EQUALLY weights all shots is not a good metric (I’m looking right at you Corsi and Fenwick). It first ignores our prior that says that shots-that-are-goals contains more information than non-goal-shots. Secondly, it’s not supported by empirical research."


He also has a 7 part series on CORSI and shooting percentage: Talks about how PDO doesn't regress to 100, how quality of shots/chances matter. You know, the handwavey stuff people bring up all the time.

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2014/11...nto-maple.html
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