Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
You don't understand what outliers are then. Case in point, over the last five full seasons, only one team managed a PDO of 1.03 or higher. That is one instance out of 150 team seasons. Only four posted a PDO of 1.025 or higher. Only eight managed 1.02 or higher. These are outliers.
So when people say the Flames' PDO of 1.031 is unsustainable, they do so because they do not believe the Flames are likely to finish at the extreme high end of the scale.
Bluntly, the Flames are not likely to finish at the extreme high end of the scale.
But that does not mean it can't happen. Colorado did it last year under the same circumstances.
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So the stats don't prove anything, it is just that "they do not believe". This comment is exactly why people like myself do not have much faith in "advanced" stats. Call them stats that report on past instances and leave it at that.