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JayP · 12-05-2014, 12:16 PM

For everyone's reference, the Flames scoring chance % at even strength is around 47% and is at 49% in all situations (the chances are counted on the FlamesNation site). Obviously you'd like to see these above 50%, but it's not nearly as dire as the Corsi numbers suggest. Scoring chances and Corsi/Fenwick do tend to match each other over the long run, but for a quarter of the season for a single team I think the scoring chance % is a better representation of the Flames play.

The Flames numbers are moving in the right direction too over the course of the season:
5-on-5:
Overall: 46.8%
Last 20 games: 48.0%
Last 10 games: 50.0%
Last 5 games: 48.4%

All situations
Overall: 49.0%
Last 20 games: 50.8%
Last 10 games: 52.4%
Last 5 games: 52.1%

Obviously score effects aren't considered which would make a difference, but from what I've seen is that there doesn't seem to be as big an effect on scoring chances than with shot attempts. This makes sense logically - teams don't sit back and protect leads by giving up scoring chances. They give up possession and the outside shots.

12-05-2014, 12:16 PM	#59
JayP Franchise Player Join Date: Mar 2003 Exp:	For everyone's reference, the Flames scoring chance % at even strength is around 47% and is at 49% in all situations (the chances are counted on the FlamesNation site). Obviously you'd like to see these above 50%, but it's not nearly as dire as the Corsi numbers suggest. Scoring chances and Corsi/Fenwick do tend to match each other over the long run, but for a quarter of the season for a single team I think the scoring chance % is a better representation of the Flames play. The Flames numbers are moving in the right direction too over the course of the season: 5-on-5: Overall: 46.8% Last 20 games: 48.0% Last 10 games: 50.0% Last 5 games: 48.4% All situations Overall: 49.0% Last 20 games: 50.8% Last 10 games: 52.4% Last 5 games: 52.1% Obviously score effects aren't considered which would make a difference, but from what I've seen is that there doesn't seem to be as big an effect on scoring chances than with shot attempts. This makes sense logically - teams don't sit back and protect leads by giving up scoring chances. They give up possession and the outside shots. Last edited by JayP; 12-05-2014 at 12:18 PM.