For those who really want to dive in on what PDO is (it isn't luck), read this loooooooong article from last summer that shuts down any attempt to prove that a PDO of over 100 is unsustainable for any team.
First off, here's a fun little quote from it to get you going:
Quote:
Where does PDO come from? PDO is named after the name of a commenter on an Edmonton Oilers blog who coined it. Here is what he said that lead to the assumption that the baseline for teams/players should be 100:Lets pretend there was a stat called "blind luck." Said stat was simply adding SH% and SV% together. I know there's a way to check what this number should generally be, but I hate math so lets just say 100% for ####s and giggles. That's where this conventional wisdom comes from, I'm not making this up. (Source) The amount of thought that went into creating PDO as a way to measure luck really is a) that poorly thought out and b) stress tested at the "####s and giggles" level.
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And later in the article, part that would be beneficial for us this year, why did Colorado play well with bad corsi last year, did having a high PDO show they were lucky?
Quote:
let's say you were told that Team A was going to be heavily outshot throughout the course of a season and you were asked what they would need to do to come out with a strong winning record. You would say that they're going to have to save more shots than an average team would be expected to save and they're going to have to score more goals on their limited opportunities than would normally be expected. Another way of putting that last sentence is that they'll need to have a better than league average save % and a better than league average shooting %. If you added a better than league average save % and a better than league average shooting % you'd get a better than league average combined score, you'd get a PDO over 100.
If you're winning at a high rate while getting heavily outshot you have to have a high PDO. If a team is winning and has a CF%/FF%/SF% under 50% you don't need to look up that team's PDO, it has to be over 100 for reasons of simple math. Now in this case in order to determine if this team is lucky or just skilled you need to determine if it's because the team has better than average skill or if it's because the team performed far better than their expected output in these areas. PDO doesn't account for the expected value in any way and that's where it fails.
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Full article:
http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2014...ictment-of-pdo