[SeeGeeWhy]

I'd like to see a plot of ... the last 10 completed seasons, with ALL teams on the plot, with instantaneous PDO on the Y-axis, and Games Played on the X axis. Does PDO REALLY regress to 1000 for all teams? And does that hold true across multiple seasons? I'd like to think that a team that drafts well from a limited pool, hires good coaching will tend to accumulate pieces in their system that have a higher degree of performance and less variability to their performance... which is what this bullspit "stat" is all about.

I do not buy that two unrelated variables namely save % (proven to be a combination of team defensive ability AND goaltender skill - neither seem to be OVERLY luck related) and shooting % (again, seems to have more to do with the quality of shots attempted and player ability than luck) have anything to do with "team luck", and I buy even LESS that it is going to go to the same level for all teams every single year. This is not a law of freaking nature here. It doesn't blow my mind to contemplate that a well built and coached team will be consistently higher than poorly built and coached teams.

Let's think about it. Imagine an undefended wrist shot taken from the slot. What about the scenario makes the possibility of a goal a random chance event? Perhaps the probabilities of the ice being in good condition, the air density is consistent through the travel path, the player is healthy, the player gets the timing right, the stick holds integrity, the player getting the chance is one of your higher skilled guys (i.e. more accurate and consistently accurate) and that the goalie is good. I mean, those ARE variables, but teams have some degree of control over how many times they can let ANY player take that sort of shot, and they do have some control over the quality of player selection and development. Those factors seem more important to me in determining success and thus PDO ceiling on a long term basis than the tiny random events that can be chalked up to "luck". Good teams create high PDO numbers; high PDO numbers do not drag good teams down. Nor do I think that there is any good reason to expect that all teams will have a PDO that hovers around the same number. It makes NO sense.

Theres a reason crap teams who play crap defense and take crap shots end up with low PDO numbers - it's because they suck. "Luck" will help them a little in a few games, but that translates to what... 1 or 2 goals a night? How does that help you win more games when you're losing by more than 2 - 3 per game? It doesn't.