[ernie]

I think advanced statistics are useful. There are certainly general trends that can be "relied" on and if building a team you are going to feel more comfortable going forward with a strong possession team. However, they are just one piece of information. The reason people looked at the Leafs last year and expected a fall was because in addition to the poor possession numbers the goaltending was likely playing out of their minds. In short the advanced statistics suggested the team was overperforming in the standings and then looking at the reasons it may have been a result of unsustainable goaltending (and other things).

So I can see how the same thing can be said for the Flames...a month ago. I'm certainly not a Flames fans but Treliving is correct. They are not winning the same way. While good goaltending is certainly a major part of things the team itself is playing extremely well in other areas. So while I'm not sure the goaltending is going to maintain the level they are at and some drop may occur I'm not convinced it will be a precipitous drop.

The Oilers on the other hand are going with inexperienced goaltenders. The numbers appear lower than typical for these goaltenders but can typical even be defined for them as starters or as 1a/1b type guys? They have under 140 games combined. So while the advanced statistics suggests a rise of some sort that rise is also dependent on goaltending getting better (for one instance). Will it? No idea. And in that case mid-range possession numbers coupled with sub par goaltending is likely to land you at the bottom of the standings or close to. And then you have another issue that is coming to the surface with the Oilers if you listen to the opposition: you can beat htem by pressing early and getting ahead by one or two OR you can beat them by playing passive and waiting for the prime scoring chances they will give up. Either one of those scenarios is likely to lead to somewhat misleading possession stats - teams with leads sit back and passive teams looking to capitalize on mistakes sit back. And of course, with the advanced stats there are trends but not everything is going to fit that trend all the time. (this also ignores scoring chances. I think if you looked at scoring chances the Oilers are getting absolutely trounced in that department. Often more shots means more scoring chances but again anomalies happen).

And as mentioned above...to disregard something because it would be some historically low number and assume it come back because of that ignores that some team has to be that historical example.


I guess in the end it aggravates me when I see things like "The Corsi suggests they should be better!". No the Corsi suggests they should be better if in addition they have competent goaltending, are creating equal chances, are getting shots through and on net (I don't think the Oilers actually do) etc etc etc. It's an indicator, not a law.