12-03-2014, 11:28 AM
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#1
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Lifetime Suspension
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Friedman's 30 thoughts - analytics say Oilers' luck should turn
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/e...eal-canadiens/
Claims that PDO indicates Oilers have been very "unlucky" and could indicate a turnaround, if the law of averages are to play in.
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Anyway, the theory behind PDO is the more you go above 1.000, the luckier you are. The lower you go, the unluckier you are. The critical part is this: eventually, your luck is supposed to even out.
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You know who is dead last in this category right now? Edmonton. The Oilers’ total is .961, 11 points below Columbus. The last team to finish that low for a full season? Atlanta, who posted a .957 back in 1999-2000.
Someone in the Edmonton organization did something awful to a black cat.
Now, here’s the biggest question: Is there any way on earth the Oilers can sell that?
Edmonton’s taken a deep dive into the analytic wading pool this season, and, when things were rough early in the year, the organization’s mood was positive, because the underlying numbers weren’t bad. And the PDO was low — very unlucky.
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Thoughts on Flames:
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21. After the 2014 Calder Trophy voting was announced, one exec I regularly talk to was apoplectic (and no, he doesn’t work for Calgary, have unruly hair and refuse to tie his tie). “No problem with Nathan MacKinnon winning,” he said, “But how does a 19-year-old centre with 22 goals finish eighth?” Sean Monahan is on pace for 26 this season, but more impressively, he’s doing it without veteran support down the middle.
Asked if Monahan is part of the leadership group, GM Brad Treliving paused before answering, “Yes. You don’t just want your young players to be part of the team, you want them to feel they can be more than that.” As injuries ravaged their forward units, Treliving said Monahan was nudged even further. “He’s younger than some of the guys we called up, but he’s played more games. Could he show them how to prepare and what it takes?” It appears the answer is yes.
22. The Flames are the analytics target right now, with their underlying numbers worrying the pocket protectors. Treliving, who dabbles in this, says he’s not too concerned.
“If we were still winning games the way we were earlier in the season, that would be a problem.” He’s referring to nights like Oct. 15, when Calgary beat Chicago 2-1 despite being outshot 50-18.
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Last edited by djsFlames; 12-03-2014 at 11:31 AM.
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