[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

On the first part, I can't really disagree with you without making an ass out of myself.

Thank you. You ran headlong into that one. I had to do that to you since I've taken so much flak using NORAD as an example of inconsistencies in the events of 9/11. Can't have it both ways, right? Oh, and I firmly believe that NORAD has these tools to do what we both suggest/know they can do.

However there are some givens here. When the missile launches if you have a good look at it you can get a pretty good feel for its characteristics just by looking at the acceleration curve from first ignition until it reaches its consistant top boost phase. Also except for the Chinese who have thier missiles more or less angled in thier silos or the Russians who set initial aiming points on thier SRBM's by angling thier launching vehicles, most missiles come out of thier launch tubes, and then rotate and angle onto thier headings. Between these things you can get a pretty good picture of where its going and how far its going to go.

All good points and very true. The problem is that we are unsure if the rocket was indeed completely fuelled and we have no idea if all stages were fuelled. This may have the reason for the early termination of the missile, that it was unstable from these control factors not being taken into consideration.

the U.S. does thier actual classifications based around data gathered during observed test launches.

This was the first launch of this missile, so there was no observable data to rely upon. Based on this lack of data it would have been impossible to identify and estimate the potential target for the missile.

On your hypothtical on the car and gas thing, its a little different here Lanny and you know it. A liquid fueled missile is carrying a full load of fuel because missiles have to be light and they are incredibly fragile/ The Fuel actually gives a missile its strength and rigidity. So again you can time burn rates on stages and be pretty consistant on knowing the missiles range. But if we were take your car with a full fuel load, and we know where you were going and had a consistant state of the conditions of your course we could pretty accurately calculate your length of travel and probable destination with a certain degree of confidence. IE if we fueled up your car to the max, put you and your wife in it with a consistant load of payroll and fired you from a catapult, we can calculate with a certain degree of certainty where your car and you would land (and explode).

Yes, it is a little different, but that's the point of the exercise. You DON'T have the complete intelligence. You DON'T know what vehicle is leaving the garage. You don't know if I have a full tank of gas and you don't know whether I have a payload or if I am towing anything that will reduce my range. These are the unknowns and you have no idea. You can give a range, but that is it.

We can also look at probable tagets between your start points and your course as a second source of data.

Yes, and since this was a test flight and there was thousands of miles of open ocean I would say they were hoing to hit the ocean. Now, if it had been Shean Donovon at the controls I woud say that the odds were pretty good that the missile wouldn't have hit the ocean, where it was aimed!

Yes a part coming off of the rocket would certainly effect thing, again I'm not denying that, however it came off after the initial boost phase (right). So they were through the boost phase and rotation.

Were they? I don't have enough information on this missile to make that assumption.

However I don't think that this bomb aimed at Hawaii story has any legs. As it stands if Bush was the Darth Vader of the century he would have been on the roof tops bleating about this and firing cruise missiles into N Korea as justification for his war on terror.

I think we're jumping at shadows, and the missiles targets would be the west coast people . . . the west coast. That part of the states was suppossed to slide into the sea years ago, its beyond its lifespan and has had a good run.

We agree. I think this whole thing is a steaming pile of bull**** dreamed up and planted in the media to test the reaction of the people.