I find it hard to believe that a missiles path could be accurately estimated within it's first 40 secs. Especially if it's a long range missile and especially if it's a multi-staged missile. Now whether it was multi-staged or not is something else entirely, but it was claimed to be, was it not?
Add to the fact that it wsn't opperating properly and such estimations could probably be thrown right out the window, but I guess they were estimating on where it was aimed, not whether it would make it there.
However, it would make sense that it's target would be just short of American airspace or what might be an American target in the future. That would definitely get people's attention. Seeing as N. Korea has already proved what they want to regarding their range abilities and Japan, Hawaii would be the next logical step in distance and route would it not?
Going back to the other side of the argument, it would also make sense for the media to make this assumption though without credible facts. Not necessarily for any right vs. left agenda or anything or because they were convinced by the government such data was correct, but simply because alarming news sells better. If it bleeds, it leads right?
Going back to the original argument, I also have to agree that recent efforts by N. Korea are more of a bargaining tool and a cry for attention, than a real act of hostility. Right or not, they probably do fear their independance. And they also probably crave some of the bargaining attention Iran has received lately.
Now they could obviously correct this by establishing a more fair more free government, working peacefully with the world, and other such things, but it's doubtful they are going to do it that way. That's not really the argument.
I also saw a news report and some analysts that said that the recent actions by Kim were because of pressure from hardliners in his government/military rankings. An interesting idea to think he might not be the most hardline of the people in charge in that nation, but it does make sense.
The people, and the government take a lot of pride in their military accomplishments. It's as much to make his own nation happy (or feel safe or vindicated or strong) as it is to get attention from the rest of the world.
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