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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
Actually the U.S. facility in Norad can calculate within a 100 mile radius where a missile is going to land as soon as it rotates out of it silo or off of its launcher, the longer they can track it, the more accurate they can get.
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Is this the same NORAD that completely lost track of four civilian planes on 9/11 in their own airspace and were completely baffled at how to react?
I have no doubt that NORAD makes these claims. I also have no doubt that it is possible, with the right intelligence. As long as you have the knowledge of what type of missile is being launched, the number of stages, the payload weight, and the angle at which it was launched, you can make a pretty good guess as to where it's going to land. But when you readily admit that you do NOT have any intelligence on the weapon, that you're unsure of the stage configuration, and you're not sure of the fuel situation or payload, you can't predict a damn thing.
Quick, answer me this question:
I'm leaving my house this morning, how far will I get before I run out of gas? Come on fellas, you're all really smart guys, how far do I get?
BTW... let's not forget that something came off the missile at launch, does that affect the ability of NORAD to track or predict anything? Also, NORAD is able to identify missiles by signatures from engines, identified through collection of data from observation of test launches. If this was the maiden flight, what data would there be to identify anything? Sometimes "military intelligence" really is an oxymoron.
