Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
I wanted to ask the question: Which metric is more reliable: corsi for % at 5v5, or total goal differential?
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Great job, thanks. That does say pretty conclusively that there is no reason to be overly worried about corsi, as long as goal differential is good.
That said, you have to remember that this is not an either/or question. You can use both at the same time. My question would be, do predictions get notably better by taking corsi into account, and if so, how much?
So for example, if you only look at teams with a good +/-, are the ones that drop out of playoffs more likely to have bad corsi?
And of course, are the teams with a poor goal differential that eventually make the playoffs more likely to have good corsi?
(Too lazy to do the math myself, sorry.)