Flames: 30 points, 14-8-2, 3rd in division, 5th conference, 10th league.
Coyotes: 21 points, 9-11-3, 6th in division, 12th conference, 24th league.
(American) Thanksgiving has come and gone, and the Flames are still in a playoff position. This is the point in the season where most teams currently holding a spot hold onto it and make the playoffs. There's still a lot of season to go, but the Flames have established a pattern for success, namely failing to lose 2 games in a row (in regulation) this year. They are 6-4-0 in their last 10 games, including games against Chicago, Tampa Bay, San Jose, and Anaheim twice, one of those being the dreaded cursed Honda Center game. It's easy to look at some of the advanced stats and say the Flames will regress and be one of those teams that doesn't make the playoffs, but for anyone who has watched this team and observed the amount of character they display you know it's highly unlikely at this point that they will falter that badly.
There's one stat that's a fairly accurate predictor of success, and that's goal differential. Currently the Flames have a +11 differential, which ties them with Vancouver, L.A., Detroit, and Minnesota for 6th in the league, all teams that are also likely to be in the playoffs. Technically their goal differential could place them as low as 10th, which correlates closely with their point total. It's important to note that only one team with a negative goal differential is currently in a playoff spot: Winnipeg with a -4. That's misleading, because the Minnesota Wild have a +11 differential and are 2 points behind the Jets with 3 fewer games played. It's only a matter of time before the Jets are out and the Wild are in. There are only 3 teams that are currently out of the playoffs with a positive goal differential. The Wild are one, and the other two are the Rangers and Senators, each with just a +1 differential, so for those latter two teams it's not a strong enough number to correlate to a playoff spot.
On the flip side, the goal differential for the Coyotes is -14, ranking them 27th in the league which is a close correlation to their current point standings. This is why only 2 players have a positive +/-: Rob Klinkhammer +3, and Tobias Rieder +6. Everyone else is well into the minus, including Oliver Ekman-Larsson's -15 (nobody is even close to that number), a guy that most people consider to be an elite defenseman. It doesn't help that Mike Smith has struggled all year, with a sub .900 Sv% and 3.26 GAA. It wouldn't be considered poor to have bad goaltending numbers on a bad team if Devan Dubnyk were not posting respectable numbers at .926 Sv%, 2.34 GAA and a 5-0-2 record. That's right, Dubnyk is playing better than Smith, but wasn't good enough for the Oilers. Stupid Oilers ruining their goalies.
The Coyotes come in having just 1 win in their last 5 games, which would make sense if they had been losing to good teams, but only 2 of those 5 games were against playoff teams, and one of those was Washington. Still, they were able to go into Vancouver not long ago and beat them 5-0, not something many teams have been able to do this year. When Tippett has them playing the right way they can be a dangerous and effective team. However, they just struggle to score or defend 5 on 5, with a 0.79 F/A ratio, placing them bottom 5 in the league. Their special teams are middle of the pack, but nothing too special. They should be very well rested, as they haven't played since Tuesday. Vermette and Yandle both lead the team with just 16 points in 23 games. There's just no high end talent on this team to get them past the rough stretches. But, if there's one thing the 'Yotes do well it's win face-offs, at 52.3% ranked 7th in the league. The other thing they do well is block shots. Ranked 2nd, just behind your Calgary Flames, they have 232 blocks, led by Michael Stone's league leading 64 blocks.
The Flames are on the opposite end of the face-off spectrum, 2nd to last at 46.1%. When Monahan is your most experienced center, playing just his 100th NHL game tonight, that's to be expected. Knight will rejoin the team as he was "demoted" temporarily on a paper transaction while Setoguchi cleared waivers and subsequently was assigned to Adirondack. Perhaps he can help win a few more face-offs until Stajan, Backlund, and Colborne get healthy. I'd be curious to see a correlation between Corsi/Fenwick and face-off percentage. Make it happen stat guys! Karri Ramo gets the start tonight after his shutout against the Sharks, as Hartley continues to ride the hot goaltender for as long as he sees fit. Speaking of hot, Hudler is now red hot with 5 points in his last 3 games, and Brodie has 4 points in his last 2 games to become the 2nd highest scoring defenseman in the NHL…behind Giordano of course. That's amazing.
The lines have been a complete jumble the last practice, so don't take these lines as anything more than a prediction, rather than an accurate report.
Flames
Glencross-Monahan-Jones
Gaudreau-Jooris-Hudler
Ferland-Granlund-Byron
Baertschi-Knight-Bouma
Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Wideman
Smid-Engelland
Ramo
Coyotes
Korpikoski-Vermette-Boedker
Rieder-Hanzal-Doan
Shinnimin-Gagner-Erat
McMillan-Vitale-Crombeen
Ekman-Larsson-Michalek
Yandle-Stone
Summers-Murphy
Smith
Go Flames Go!!!