Quote:
Originally Posted by Regorium
However, whether as a person or as a NHL hockey team, you want to put yourself in the best position to succeed. Bill Gates dropping out of college and becoming extraordinarily successful does not invalidate the value of college. Just as cherry picking the Oilers for having average possession numbers and failing (and the Flames the opposite) do not invalidate the entire field of statistics and probability. In both cases, an average person or an average team should look at the data, and realize that college in the individual case, or high possession numbers in the NHL case, will set you up for the greatest probability of success.
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Well put in general, but in this part you are making a common mistake in interpretation of statistics. (I'm sure you actually know this, but I think it's relevant enough to be said here.)
College is not the best option for each individual. It's the best option on average, or for most people. Each individual needs to look at their strengths and weaknessess and decide whether or not college is best for them. Blindly going into college because it's
usually the best choice can be a mistake for some, and lead into worse results than another path would have.
Likewise, even though high possession numbers are a good thing for teams on average, it does not automatically follow that every team should try to have high possession numbers.
Maybe some teams are odd cases that actually do better playing a style that leads to low possession numbers? Maybe the way we play has been chosen because Hartley and his assistants realized that this team is mostly going to lose possession numbers no matter what they do?
It's possible that someday we will have genuinely advanced statistics that will tell us which teams should pay attention to possession numbers and which teams need to focus on something else.
(Also, just like you can go to college later in your life, you can try to raise your possession numbers later in the season.)
(Also; Note that I'm just speculating. Maybe every team should try to have high possession numbers. Maybe we are trying and failing. Who knows.)