Quote:
Originally Posted by Aarongavey
I am not a fancy stats expert, so this is a question to those that understand these numbers
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/team...T&sortdir=DESC
My reading of the fancy stats is that the Oilers are the 17th best team for Fenwick percentage. The Oilers have a better Fenwick than the Rangers, the Habs, Calgary, Ottawa, Philly and a host of others.
The Oilers are the 14th best team for Corsi. They are a better Corsi team than Anaheim, Vancouver, Rangers, Habs, Philly, Colorado, Calgary amongst others.
Am I reading those stats right, are the Oilers a better hockey team than the Habs, Flyers and Rangers based on those two stats? Are the Oilers better than the Ducks based on Corsi?
Do these two predictive stats say that the Oilers eventually will compete with the Ducks this year, assuming that everything regresses to the mean? |
Corsi and Fenwick are also not deterministic indicators in that having a better Corsi or Fenwick does not 100% relate to winning. However, there is a clear and evident correlation.
The way to think about it is that if you have good Corsi/Fenwick, you have an 80% chance to make the playoffs. That statement, in itself, shows that there is uncertainty in the numbers. It means that out of a population of 30 teams, there are probably 5-7 teams that don't follow the prevailing trend.
This does not invalidate statistics. This is evidence that real life is not completely deterministic - it is probabilistic, and you can make all the right decisions in your life, and still end up a failure.
However, whether as a person or as a NHL hockey team, you want to put yourself in the best position to succeed. Bill Gates dropping out of college and becoming extraordinarily successful does not invalidate the value of college. Just as cherry picking the Oilers for having average possession numbers and failing (and the Flames the opposite) do not invalidate the entire field of statistics and probability. In both cases, an average person or an average team should look at the data, and realize that college in the individual case, or high possession numbers in the NHL case, will set you up for the greatest probability of success.
The Flames absolutely can continue to succeed with 43% corsi. But I know for a fact that if they're succeeding with 55% corsi I would be a lot more comfortable. We would probably be seeing a lot more 4-1 or 3-0 easy victories rather than 5-4 SO winners with a 2 goal comeback in the last 3 minutes.
Another way to look at it, is if you look at the top 10 and bottom 10 corsi (thereby increasing your sample size)
Top 10: Chicago, Minnesota, NYI, Nashville, Boston, Tampa, Detroit, STL, SJ, Pittsburgh
Bottom 10: Montreal, Dallas, Florida, Columbus, Arizona, Philly, Toronto, Ottawa, Colorado, Calgary, Buffalo
If you were to pick one of these groupings for your team to be associated with, which would you pick?