How about a quick simple example to illustrate the point?:
Wrong (blogger) way to do it...
Item: possession stats are fairly strongly correlated with winning
Item: Flames have a good record but weak possession stats
Conclusion: Flames record will regress to match their possession stats
Proper way to do it...
Item:
Item:
Questions: those are potentially incongruous, what else is going on here? what else do we know? how significant is this data? confidence levels? do other stats support the incongruity or refute it?
etc
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