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Originally Posted by JetsFlamesFan
So are we basing that on the fact that their shooting percentage is so high, and it must average out over 82 games?
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Partly, yes. But also on the fact that good possession teams are better at bucking trends (in a good way) than bad possession team. The Flames have been a bad possession team, and continue to be pretty bad possession-wise despite recent modest improvements.
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If that's the case, is their shooting percentage so high because their shots on goal are so low and they are just getting lucky right now? If they are way below average in shots on goal, couldn't I also suggest that their shots on goal will go up because it must average out over 82 games?
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Nope. Shots on goal don't tend to regress.
If your team scores in 15% of shots, its because they're lucky, and probably won't continue to be lucky. But if they post 40 shots per game, they're good, and will probably continue to be good.
Obviously teams can have a good or bad game here and there, or even be wildly inconsistent, but over a long-ish stretch (maybe 10-20 games) the good teams will shoot more than the crappy teams, and give up fewer shots against.
With regards to it being a deliberate strategy, the teams that collapse defensively and get peppered with perimeter shots all game, and then rely on scoring a big goal off the rush going the other way... well those are usually crappy teams. So the shot totals still tend to reflect ability. Not always, but usually.