Quote:
Originally Posted by _Q_
But see that's just it. It's a surrogate. It's a projection of possession, but it in no way indicates possession.
Teams play different styles of game. To try to project their possession numbers using one metric (which in no way indicates possession, but rather attempts to make a correlation) is simply puzzling.
And last year, Pittsburgh, Montreal and Minnesota all had low Fenwick percentages while Vancouver, New Jersey and Florida were all above average. We all know how the first group did compared to the second group.
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Right - it's only an indicator of possession, and there will always be exceptions.
But as good an example you would get would be on the Flames. When Giordano and Brodie are on the ice, the Flames outshoot the opposition by a pretty wide margin. It goes with it that the Flames mostly carry the play when they are on the ice. Which is why their corsi/fenwick numbers (particularly relative) are so so high. This also passes the eye test.
And it's pretty simple (not advanced) stuff. The Flames outshoot and therefore outscore the opposition by a wide margin when that defensive pairing is on the ice, and Corsi/fenwick reflects how good they are.