Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Not to worry; this won't last says Myrtle

Regorium · 11-19-2014, 03:06 PM

I also apologize if this has been posted, but I think we should set the baseline as to why "advanced" stats are useful.

http://corsihockeyleague.com/2014/11...-the-playoffs/

If you have a score-adjusted Fenwick of >=50%, you have an 80% chance of making the playoffs. <=50% and it's 26%. The author seems to have double counted 50% making the two percentages not add up to 100.

That's a significant deviation from an expected random result of 53% chance of making the playoffs. A sample size of 210 (30 teams from the past 7 seasons) is more than enough to show a significant statistical deviation of greater than 25 percentage points.

It seems pretty obvious that higher possession scores correlate well with success. Why are people having a hard time accepting it?

11-19-2014, 03:06 PM	#244
Regorium First Line Centre Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Calgary Exp:	I also apologize if this has been posted, but I think we should set the baseline as to why "advanced" stats are useful. http://corsihockeyleague.com/2014/11...-the-playoffs/ If you have a score-adjusted Fenwick of >=50%, you have an 80% chance of making the playoffs. <=50% and it's 26%. The author seems to have double counted 50% making the two percentages not add up to 100. That's a significant deviation from an expected random result of 53% chance of making the playoffs. A sample size of 210 (30 teams from the past 7 seasons) is more than enough to show a significant statistical deviation of greater than 25 percentage points. It seems pretty obvious that higher possession scores correlate well with success. Why are people having a hard time accepting it?