[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Seems to me looking at it in more detail, as many have pointed out top performing teams should have high PDO's that's what would make them good. Given the Flames performance to date, it makes sense that there PDO is high. As for a future predictor I have the following thoughts:

1. The Flames Save % part of this equation does not seem to be a risk of overachieveing. We are firmly in the middle of the standings for shots allowed and goals against, suggesting we are not benefiting un-fairly from goaltending standing on it's head. Goals against are right on par with shots allowed, no worse or better than it should be. This moving forward should be sustainable.

2. Where there appears to be at risk with this statistic type is our shooting %. Amoung the most goals for despite the being amoung the least shots taken. A risk that our shooting % comes down to reality, so will the goals for and therefore the wins.

So then, the key question one who watches the team need to ask them self, why is the Flames shooting % so high. Do we have a bunch of players on a hot streak just snipping goals left right and center? Are we just getting more of our share of errors handed our way that can't be sustained?

I guess this is the subjective part and maybe I have my homer glasses on, but from what I've seen so far I don't see the risk. This team has earned it's win, we are not getting lucky with sniper shots that can't continue and we are not being outplayed by our oppenents regularily. My take on the high shooting percentage is actually 2 things:

1. The team is actually not taking enough shots when they are pressing in the offensive zone. I haven't left a game yet not saying I didn't think the team over pass. This would reduce the number of shots, but would not be an indicator of being outplayed.

2. I do think the Flames pressure game does cause the opposition to give up more ducks and create gimmie errors.

Of course I wonder if the Flames good play is sustainable, and it might not be. But this is not a Leafs situation alla last year where if you watch the games you aren't sure how they are pulling off the wins because they don't deserve them. It is a situation whether you feel a team that is playing well can keep playing well, but that's something different.

Came to post something similar.

As mentioned, save percentage is not an issue and the Flames goaltending has been average.

Their shooting percentage is very high and that can't last, but I would make a couple points on it:

1) They are not a team that fires a lot of shots, they favour the cross-crease passes and pretty plays.Like CSW said, I don’t think a game goes by where I don’t yell that they should shoot more. Their style results in both fewer shots and a higher shooting percentage.

2) They have been generating a lot of breakaways and odd man rushes (high percentage scoring plays) because of a) turnovers and speed, and b) stretch passes.I would expect teams to adjust and reduce the success of stretch passes.We’ll have to see about odd man rushes.

On the other side of the ledger is an issue that I am amazed hasn’t been discussed more.Possession numbers include blocked shots.I understand why.In and of itself, a blocked shot is essentially the same as a missed shot – both represent and offensive attempt.

The problem however, is that the game has changed.Blocked shots have become a defensive strategy for some teams – and the Flames are the flag-bearers of this.Hits used to be a decent indicator of team defense because one of the primary means of attempting to thwart offensive possession was to hit.That has changed and now hitting is not as useful a stat for team defense.

Similarly, blocked shots have morphed from being an indication of offense (and thus why they are included in Corsi), to being an indication of defense.

What I mean by that is that it used to be that a blocked shot represented a shot attempt.Now, more often than not, a blocked shot represents a good defensive play – especially for teams (like the Flames) that employ it as a significant part of their team defense.And here’s the rub: not only is it a defensive play, but it typically results in continued possession (and thus more) shot attempts.However, those shot attempts are low percentage shots.

Why are the Flames winning despite being outshot?It could be luck and an unsustainably high shooting percentage (which is probably part of it), but it is also due to defensive style, which promotes collapsing to the middle and allowing a high number of blocked shots, perimeter shots, and shots in traffic.