Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Not to worry; this won't last says Myrtle

Cleveland Steam Whistle · 11-17-2014, 11:21 PM

Seems to me looking at it in more detail, as many have pointed out top performing teams should have high PDO's that's what would make them good. Given the Flames performance to date, it makes sense that there PDO is high. As for a future predictor I have the following thoughts:

1. The Flames Save % part of this equation does not seem to be a risk of overachieveing. We are firmly in the middle of the standings for shots allowed and goals against, suggesting we are not benefiting un-fairly from goaltending standing on it's head. Goals against are right on par with shots allowed, no worse or better than it should be. This moving forward should be sustainable.

2. Where there appears to be at risk with this statistic type is our shooting %. Amoung the most goals for despite the being amoung the least shots taken. A risk that our shooting % comes down to reality, so will the goals for and therefore the wins.

So then, the key question one who watches the team need to ask them self, why is the Flames shooting % so high. Do we have a bunch of players on a hot streak just snipping goals left right and center? Are we just getting more of our share of errors handed our way that can't be sustained?

I guess this is the subjective part and maybe I have my homer glasses on, but from what I've seen so far I don't see the risk. This team has earned it's win, we are not getting lucky with sniper shots that can't continue and we are not being outplayed by our oppenents regularily. My take on the high shooting percentage is actually 2 things:

1. The team is actually not taking enough shots when they are pressing in the offensive zone. I haven't left a game yet not saying I didn't think the team over pass. This would reduce the number of shots, but would not be an indicator of being outplayed.

2. I do think the Flames pressure game does cause the opposition to give up more ducks and create gimmie errors.

Of course I wonder if the Flames good play is sustainable, and it might not be. But this is not a Leafs situation alla last year where if you watch the games you aren't sure how they are pulling off the wins because they don't deserve them. It is a situation whether you feel a team that is playing well can keep playing well, but that's something different.

11-17-2014, 11:21 PM	#205
Cleveland Steam Whistle Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2011 Exp:	Seems to me looking at it in more detail, as many have pointed out top performing teams should have high PDO's that's what would make them good. Given the Flames performance to date, it makes sense that there PDO is high. As for a future predictor I have the following thoughts: 1. The Flames Save % part of this equation does not seem to be a risk of overachieveing. We are firmly in the middle of the standings for shots allowed and goals against, suggesting we are not benefiting un-fairly from goaltending standing on it's head. Goals against are right on par with shots allowed, no worse or better than it should be. This moving forward should be sustainable. 2. Where there appears to be at risk with this statistic type is our shooting %. Amoung the most goals for despite the being amoung the least shots taken. A risk that our shooting % comes down to reality, so will the goals for and therefore the wins. So then, the key question one who watches the team need to ask them self, why is the Flames shooting % so high. Do we have a bunch of players on a hot streak just snipping goals left right and center? Are we just getting more of our share of errors handed our way that can't be sustained? I guess this is the subjective part and maybe I have my homer glasses on, but from what I've seen so far I don't see the risk. This team has earned it's win, we are not getting lucky with sniper shots that can't continue and we are not being outplayed by our oppenents regularily. My take on the high shooting percentage is actually 2 things: 1. The team is actually not taking enough shots when they are pressing in the offensive zone. I haven't left a game yet not saying I didn't think the team over pass. This would reduce the number of shots, but would not be an indicator of being outplayed. 2. I do think the Flames pressure game does cause the opposition to give up more ducks and create gimmie errors. Of course I wonder if the Flames good play is sustainable, and it might not be. But this is not a Leafs situation alla last year where if you watch the games you aren't sure how they are pulling off the wins because they don't deserve them. It is a situation whether you feel a team that is playing well can keep playing well, but that's something different.