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Originally Posted by wwkayaker
To build on this^, when looking at PDO, for example because I just read about it, what sample size would give an idea of a team's direction?
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PDO doesn't tell you what's going to happen, only what has happened.
That's important because its easy to see what's causing a high PDO.
Im half drunk and on my phone, so i dont have the numbers in front of me, but just as sxamples, if you have a high PDO because youve got 2009's Roberto Luongo in net posting sideways save percentages, and the Sedin twins up front scoring at will, you can say "We have a wicked high PDO because we're awesome".
And that is totally sustainable, for as long as your major contributors are at their peak.
I recall Calgary posted some crazy high PDO numbers a few years ago, but IIRC that was based on Kipper having a crazy good year, and players like Glencross and Tanguay who have had exceptionally high shooting percentages for their entire careers. In that case we didn't sustain it, but there was nothing inherently unsustainable about it.
In both those cases, the goalie SV% and player shooting % were well within what we had seen from several previous seasons. This was players who had previously posted high- end numbers all posting high-end numbers at the same time.
This year's high Flames PDO is based on Hiller (who is likely past his prime) posting numbers which are way better than he has ever sustained before. And guys like Raymond and Wideman posting shooting percentages that are way higher than they can possibly maintain, along with Giordano scoring like his hair's on fire.
None of the things that are driving the Flames' high PDO are a result of players playing at their "normal" level. Giordano is not going to finish with 90 points, and Hiller won't end the season with a .950 even-strength save%.
So there is no sample size for PDO that tells you where a team is going. Without looking at the roster, and the reasons behind a high or low PDO, it doesn't tell you anything. Like +/-, its basically meaningless on its own, it just tells you that a team is scoring more than the other team, with no indication as to why.