Quote:
Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist
You're wrong, though. I suppose it depends on your qualifier on "outlying", but almost universally a PDO that is significantly higher than 1 will regress to the mean. That's not fallacy, that's fact.
For example. Take any PDO over 1.02 for a season. Now add the season before it. Guess what, whatever sample you chose will now be lower. The top PDO and bottom PDO in the league all get smaller as the sample size gets bigger.
If you are calling a PDO of over 1.02 an outlyer, then yes, for one season that's possible. Colorado did it last year. How did that work out?
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That's like saying a teams' ERA was good one year and did well, but then the next year it was not as good and they didn't do as well. On average they will do 'okay'.