Quote:
Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!
PDO is a descriptive stat, not a predictive one.
There is a fallacy that many people repeat, which claims that PDO strongly regresses to the mean over large sample sizes.
This is not correct. Good teams routinely carry high PDO's over entire seasons, or even several seasons. Poor teams do the opposite.
There is nothing inherently unsustainable about an outlying PDO.
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You're wrong, though. I suppose it depends on your qualifier on "outlying", but almost universally a PDO that is significantly higher than 1 will regress to the mean. That's not fallacy, that's fact.
For example. Take any PDO over 1.02 for a season. Now add the season before it. Guess what, whatever sample you chose will now be lower. The top PDO and bottom PDO in the league all get smaller as the sample size gets bigger.
If you are calling a PDO of over 1.02 an outlyer, then yes, for one season that's possible. Colorado did it last year. How did that work out?