Quote:
Originally Posted by _Q_
Sorry to cherry pick, and I can see some useful points in your argument, but see this is what bugs me about these advanced stats.
You're essentially saying Pittsburgh's PDO will drop, but they'll weather the storm better than Calgary because they're a better team. How is it then that PDO, if looking at it as a purely predictive tool as some writers use it telling us anything?
"LA has a low PDO, but that will improve because they're a good team."
"Buffalo is a horrible team, their PDO clearly shows that. "
" Calgary has a high PDO, but don't be fooled, they're not that great of a team and they'll come back down to earth."
Really, is any of this saying anything we don't know? That good team will improve in the standings and bad teams will drop? Do we need an advanced stat to tell us that?
I'd also argue with you that Pittsburgh is a bad team being propped up by two generational talents and that Calgary is a much better built team. But that is for regular old fashioned hockey analysis and observation, it has no room in this thread.
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You actually answered your own question in the first few words.
Cherry picking. Beware people using a single stat to make points like this.
Calgary has a huge PDO despite poor underlyng fundamentals. So too does Tampa Bay. Pittsburgh isn't as bad, but are still a bit out of shape. If the underlying stats do not change, all three will plunge relative to the league in PDO. But of the three, Pittsburgh is in the best shape.
The flip side is a team like Chicago, which has extremely strong underlying figures (i.e.: best Corsi For% in the NHL), but an absurdly low shooting percentage of 5.94% at 5 on 5 (dead last). Chicago is on pace to take 2378 shots at 5 on 5 and score only 141 goals. If they were to rise to that same 8.49% for 10th place at the end of the season, they would score 202 goals on the same number of shots. And that +61 difference from now to the end of the season is a full goal per game.
So when I look at the numbers as a whole and view in the lens of PDO, I see teams like Calgary and Tampa that should drop a fair bit, Pittsburgh who should drop a little, and Chicago, who should jump significantly. But in all cases, these predictions would change if the first three possess the puck more, and if Chicago controls it less.