Quote:
Originally Posted by _Q_
So what's a reasonable shooting percentage then? Anywhere between 9 and 10%?
We were 13th last season in shooting percentage at 9.2%. We're obviously a better team this season, so can we expect to reasonably be closer to 10% and finish in the top ten in shooting percentage? And really, assuming we maintain a 26 shots on goal average that we're at right now, a drop in shooting percentage of say 1 or 1.5% only means a drop of two or three goals every 8 games. Is that a big enough drop to make a difference?
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Most advanced stats rely on even strength data, usually 5 on 5. stats.hockeyanalysis.com is a good place to look at shooting percentages in this situation, and all others.
Here is this year, so far:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/team...T&sortdir=DESC
We are at 10.16%, first in the league. For comaprison, 10th place is 8.49%. That is a crazy large difference.
Last year, First was 9.83%, 10th was 8.01%. In 2012-13, first was 10.57%, 10th was 8.31%.
In short, we are currently on pace for 168 goals at even strength on 1657 shots. If we end the year at 8.49% - 10th as of right now, and still a high-end offence - we would score only 141 goals total, assuming the same number of shots. And that 27 goal difference would come out of the remaining 63 games. That would be a huge hit going forward.