Quote:
Originally Posted by _Q_
But see the Flames are 6th in the league in goal differential. Why is it that a drop in PDO will affect Calgary but not Pittsburgh?
I'm actually looking forward to April when are analyst pulls out the "is anyone really surprised this team has made the playoffs? Their PDO is at the top of the league, I'm actually surprised they didn't finish higher in the standings." then everyone will think he's a genius.
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A drop in PDO (relative to other teams) will affect Calgary and Pittsburgh and anyone else. But when you look at the roster of the two teams, which do you think is more likely to regress further? Almost everyone would pick Calgary.
We are where we are primarily because our shooting percentage is crazy high. Hockey Analysis has our 5 on 5 shooting percentage at 10.16%. Tampa Bay is at a similarly unsustainable 9.98%. Third is Montreal at 9.09%. The last team to shoot over 10% at 5 on 5 over the course of a season was Toronto in 2012-13 at 10.57%. In an 82-game season, Washington in 2009-10 at 10.35%. Losing one point of shooting percentage is about a 20 goal difference (based on last year's shot totals). We are currently on pace for 168 goals at 5 on 5. That 1% drop would cut our offence in this situation down by nearly 12% And at 9.16%, we would still be an elite offensive team. Fall to middle of the pack, and you see where this is going.
We can, of course, cover for this expected drop in other ways. We are already one of the top power play teams in the league (22.8% - 8th), so not much room for growth there. Other situations are statistically insignificant, so can't make any argument. (Incidentally, we lead the NHL with 4 goals at 4 on 4).
Or, our goaltending can improve. We're currently 14th in the league at 5 on 5 with a .926 save%. Honestly, I don't personally see much improvement there.
Where the Flames can cover a loss of PDO without a loss of results is in possessing the puck more. Your shooting and save percentages can fall, but if you are taking more shots and giving up less, then the impact of the changes are blunted. We are currently one of the worst teams in the league in terms of possession, which is why stat heads are looking at Calgary as being a 'lucky team'. We could well do what the Avs did last year and defy the odds to make the post-season. Personally, I would rather our underlying numbers improved. They appear to be, incidentally, but slowly.